Climate of the Wielkopolski National Park in the period of 1848-2017

Antoni T. Miller

Abstract


The aim of this study was to evaluate trends in changes of precipitation and air temperature and their cyclicity in the Wielkopolski National Forest Park during the period of 1 848-201 7. The Park is located in the middle segment of the Warta river basin, in the central part of the Wielkopolska region, near the city of Poznan. The area is situated in the western part of the Wielkopolska-Mazovian climatic region. The natural landscape is of the glacial type of Pleistocene and Holocene formation. Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) is the dominant species, but also Common oak (Quercus robur), Silver birch (Betula pendula), Alder (Alnus glutinosa) and Red beech (Fagus sylvatica) are present there. The predominant habitats include fresh broadleaved forest, fresh mixed broadleaved forest and fresh mixed coniferous forest. Climate change in the Wielkopolski National Forest Park is distinguished by relatively significant stationarity expressed e.g. by parameters of air temperature and precipitation dynamics. The time series ofmean air temperature for the nvestigated periods expressed statistically significant positive trend changes for March, April, May, August, November, December and all-year (at `=0.05). Respectively, these trends are 0.01 0, 0.009, 0.008, 0.007, 0.01 2, 0.009 and 0.006 °C/year (Sen's slope). For the other months relevant trends are not statistically significant. The time series of air temperature is characterized by periodicity. The dominating cycles are 1 68.0-, 84.0-, 8.0-, 7.6- and 5.3-year long. For the period from 1 848 to 201 7 the directional changes of the precipitation time series were not indicated at the significance level of 0.05. The trends are statistically non-significant for each month of the year and allyear periods. However, periodicity of annual recipitation was observed. The dominating periods are 1 8.7-, 9.9-, 7.0-, 3.2- and 2.1 -year long. In the Wielkopolski National Forest Park during the last 1 70 years the mean annual air temperature has increased by about 1 °C. Total annual precipitation remains unchanged. The time series ofmean annual air temperature is not homogeneous. In the last 20 years the trend towards rising air temperatures was 0.04 °C/year and it was about 6 times higher than the same trend for the whole investigation period. However, for the sum of annual precipitation the hypothesis that the time series is statistically homogeneous may not be rejected.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.



Keywords


Wielkopolski National Park, trend and periodicity of air temperature and precipitation

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Forestry Letters  eISSN 2450-4920, pISSN 0079-4708

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